With Christmas yet to arrive, mince pies still to be bought and family discussions yet to boil over into heated arguments, I thought I’d make a couple of early predictions as to what might be in store for all of us in 2014. As with most annual predictions, do feel free to forget them completely by early February…
Overall, I’m calling 2014 a positive year in which the current supply/demand mismatch of candidates to jobs will be restored to some semblance of normality. Indices are looking healthy and as soon as interest rates start to rise (a very early 2015 prediction), then net interest income for banks will recover and they will have the full confidence to start hiring ‘properly’ again.
Turnover at firms will pick up, with candidates taking advantage of the market uptick to show their frustration at perceived poor strategy of management, their lack of pay rises in recent years and concerns as to the security of future employment.
At least one custodian bank will find it increasingly difficult to retain clients due to staff dissatisfaction and resignations, to the point where it may have to withdraw from the business. One will go through a period of turbulence before coming out the other side stronger and at least one will risk much of its franchise in a shortsighted and obsessive pursuit of cost cutting.
An increasing number of new entrants will start to be seen, coming mainly from the West. For firms in the East, ‘change or die’ will increasingly be the mantra, and the Middle East will also see a rise of local custodians with wider ambitions.
Disappointingly for individuals, firms and clients, much of management will continue to ignore the ‘Three Ts’, which they should be employing to retain, incentivise and grow their better staff. They should be devoting time, training and trust to their most important commodity, their employees.
Finally, the ongoing wave of regulation will continue to distract, absorb valuable resources, waste treasure and ultimately fail to protect the end client.
Hopefully, my predictions for 2014 are not too gloomy overall. Of course, I’m happy to chat further at the GCF, Williams and various other events in December. Cheers!
As ever, do let me know your thoughts. Drop me a line at paul@localhost